Armenian “surrender” to turks: Pashinian’s visit to Ankara signals shrinking Moscow’s influence in South Caucasus

In a significant step toward easing decades of tension, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is set to visit Türkiye on June 20 at the invitation of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Yerevan announced Wednesday.
The planned visit marks the first time an Armenian prime minister will travel to Türkiye for talks at this level, a milestone in the fraught relationship between the two neighbors who have long been locked in political and historical disputes.

Alen Simonyan, speaker of Armenia’s National Assembly, described the upcoming trip as “historic,” highlighting its potential to reshape the dialogue between the two countries with a complicated past.
The announcement follows a recent visit to Ankara by Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Vahan Kostanyan on Monday. Kostanyan met with Turkish counterpart Ambassador Berris Ekinci to discuss bilateral relations and regional issues, both governments said, signaling ongoing efforts in the normalization process between the two nations, which currently lack formal diplomatic ties.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev is also expected to visit Türkiye on Thursday for the “250,000th Disaster Housing Key Delivery and Lottery Ceremony” in Kahramanmaraş, a city hit by the 2023 quake. The “Together for Stronger Tomorrows” event will feature the handover of homes built through cooperation between the Azerbaijani government and the Housing Development Administration of Türkiye (TOKI). Erdoğan will also attend.
The visit by Pashinyan comes amid cautious optimism following a June 5 phone call between the Armenian and Turkish leaders. During the conversation, Erdoğan and Pashinyan reaffirmed their commitment to dialogue, continuing a fragile process toward rapprochement that began in recent years.
Pashinyan last visited Türkiye in June 2023 to attend Erdoğan’s presidential inauguration – marking the first official visit by an Armenian leader to Türkiye since 2009. That year, then-President Serzh Sargsyan of Armenia and President Abdullah Gül exchanged visits, with Gül’s trip to Yerevan remaining the only official visit by a Turkish president to Armenia.
The two countries share a complex history. Türkiye recognized Armenia’s independence in 1991, but relations soured amid the First Karabakh War, when Armenia and Azerbaijan clashed over the disputed region. In 1993, Türkiye severed diplomatic and commercial ties with Armenia, and the border between the two countries has remained closed ever since.

The Second Karabakh War, which ended in 2020, reignited hopes for renewed dialogue. In 2021, Ankara and Yerevan appointed special representatives tasked with normalizing relations and negotiating the reopening of their land border. So far, limited agreements have allowed third-country citizens and diplomats to cross, but a full reopening remains elusive.
Despite these hurdles, there have been tentative gestures toward cooperation. The Margara border crossing has been used twice in recent years for humanitarian purposes: in February 2023 to deliver Armenian aid trucks following a devastating earthquake in southeastern Türkiye, and in March 2024 for humanitarian aid shipments to Syria via Türkiye. Armenia has also upgraded the crossing in anticipation of future use.
Still, deep-seated political and historical disagreements persist. Türkiye’s support for Azerbaijan during the 2020 war remains a source of tension and the legacy of unresolved issues, including those linked to historical grievances, complicate efforts at reconciliation.
As Pashinyan prepares for his historic visit, hopes for progress are tempered by caution. Both sides have expressed commitment to dialogue, yet no concrete roadmap has emerged to resolve their longstanding disputes.
Regional observers will closely watch the upcoming meeting in Ankara, which they view as a potential turning point in a relationship marked by conflict and mistrust.
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