Amid numerous global crises, from the genocide in Gaza to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and rising tensions in the South China Sea, a subtle yet significant geopolitical shift has occurred. On July 30, French President Emmanuel Macron sent a verbal note to King Mohammed VI of Morocco, explicitly supporting Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. This strategic move, long ignored in international discourse, marks a pivotal moment in Franco-Moroccan relations and reflects broader shifts in France’s foreign policy, especially in West Africa.

France’s influence in West Africa has been waning despite Macron’s efforts to reform French foreign policy. Since the 2013 military intervention against Boko Haram, the French presence has increasingly faced local resistance. Coups in Mali and the closure of French military bases signal a significant retreat, with approximately 40,000 French soldiers returning home. This withdrawal has coincided with increased incidents in the Sahel, from 28 in December 2022 to 151 in May 2024. The vacuum left by France has been filled by new actors, such as Russia’s Wagner Group, Chinese entrepreneurs and heightened American interest, compelling France to seek new alliances, notably with Morocco. Given these numbers, why did these countries turn their back to France while facing challenges and difficulties? The answer to this intriguing question is simple: The arrival of new actors, such as rising Russia with Wagner groups, increasing number of Chinese entrepreneurs and mounting American interest. This being the case, France was forced to withdraw from the region. This time, France might hit the jackpot.

A frozen conflict

Western Sahara was once a colony of the Spanish Empire. Due to domestic struggles and international pressure, Spain had to retrieve its forces from this region. Morocco had to make a strategic move to fill the power vacuum. King Hassan II had appealed to the Moroccan public so that they could regain what they had lost against Spain. Over 350,000 Moroccans convened and marched toward Western Sahara. The march began on Nov. 6, 1975. When once Spanish Sahara was split between Morocco and Mauritania, now 80% of the Sahara came under the control of Morocco. However, local resistance, namely the Polisario Front, has rejected the idea of being a Moroccan territory.

Algeria meddled in the conflict and Western Sahara became a frozen conflict due to the delicate regional balance of power and third parties behind Morocco and Algeria. Historical rivalries in this remote part of the Arabic world, namely the Maghreb, were revitalized. Since the 11th century, Morocco has claimed to be the successor of the Idrisid Dynasty, and Algeria has claimed to have a larger Fatimid heritage. The two countries show different characteristics. Moroccan foreign policy is in line with both French and Spanish. However, Algeria has fought against French colonizers and adopted a sense of being a larger Arab world. Choosing volunteer disregard over animosities, Morocco and Algeria have founded the Union of Arab Maghreb to settle disputes and boost interconnectivity. However, this initiative fell short and served nothing. In this process, it is highly possible that third parties sabotaged regional cooperation, so these countries had to rely on themselves.

A new approach

The quagmire of France’s colonial legacy is still causing struggles. However, Morocco is a critical country. Especially after the war in Libya in 2011, Morocco positioned itself so that West African countries are obliged to pass through the infrastructure Morocco offers. Once Libya was a gateway for African countries, now it is impossible due to the fragile and fragmented political atmosphere. Aware of the fragile African politics, France has seen a window of opportunity for its national interest – and Morocco is a perfect fit for it.

Indeed, Morocco seems to be an outsider in North African politics with its Western-oriented discourse. However, it is unreasonable to solely consider Morocco a North African country. Morocco has invested heavily in its soft power in sub-Saharan Africa for many years. Today, Morocco is actively using its upper hand in economic, cultural and religious diplomacy. In the financial sector, Moroccan banks and telecommunication companies are dominating West Africa. For instance, Attijariwafa Bank and Maroc Telecom have established a strong presence in the region. In addition, Air Maroc is among the few companies that have direct flights to landlocked cities. In the cultural aspect, Morocco offers scholarships to students from West African countries to study at Moroccan universities and promotes cultural exchanges through festivals, exhibitions and other cultural events that highlight Moroccan culture and heritage, fostering mutual understanding and goodwill. In the religious dimension, Morocco is the biggest investor in mosque restoration and funding of religious foundations.

Seeing Morocco’s weighing soft power, France could restore its image thanks to a local partner. France can now lead behind the scenes. In addition, Morocco has cultural and economic ties with Gulf countries. For instance, Morocco declared a new project called Dakhla Port. Dakhla is part of Western Sahara. Morocco can push Sahel countries to recognize its sovereignty over Western Sahara thanks to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the new financier of a new road project connecting Sahel countries to the Atlantic Ocean.

FraFrance’s support for Morocco in the Western Sahara dispute represents a strategic pivot in its African policy. This partnership promises mutual benefits: France can regain influence through Morocco’s soft power, while Morocco gains legitimacy for its claims over Western Sahara. This alignment also positions both countries to capitalize on new geo-economic shifts, including China’s expanding commercial interests in Africa. Macron’s note to King Mohammed VI thus marks the beginning of a potentially transformative alliance.