With the end of the Syrian civil war, Russia has started to reposition its military presence in the region. Having maintained a strong military presence in Syria for years thanks to its support for the Bashar Assad regime, Moscow is now shifting its resources to new strategic regions. In this process, Libya has become a critical target for Russia.

According to satellite images and open sources, Russia has started to shift its forces to Libya after having to withdraw them from Syria. Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto stated that the military elements in the port of Tartus have been transferred to Libya and that this mobility poses a serious threat to Mediterranean security. Crosetto had made the following statements in the past process:

“Moscow is moving its resources from the Syrian base in Tartus to Libya. This is not good news for us. Russia’s ships and submarines in the Mediterranean are always a concern. But it is a much bigger threat to have these assets right next to us rather than a thousand kilometers away.”

Russia’s redeployment of forces from Syria to Libya is not only related to its naval assets. Russia is also expanding its military presence in Libya, focusing on the Maaten Al Sarra airbase near the borders with Chad and Sudan. Satellite imagery and international open sources show that Russia is modernizing the airbase and strengthening its alliances with key Libyan factions, particularly the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Khalifa Haftar. The base could serve as a logistics hub for Mali, Burkina Faso and Sudan operations.

Maaten Al Sarra, which was also used during the Libya-Chad war in the 1980s, has become a base where Russia is spending resources again due to its proximity to the Sahel. In this context, satellite imagery shows that Russia has restored and expanded the Maaten Al Sarra airbase by transferring personnel and equipment, including Syrian defectors. The reconstruction work includes runway repairs, the establishment of storage facilities and enhanced logistics capabilities. The base could facilitate operations across the Sahel. In addition, according to publicly available information, there has been an increase in cargo flights between Russian bases in Syria and Libya since December 2024. These flights likely carried military equipment and personnel, strengthening Moscow’s influence in North Africa.

Jalel Harchaoui, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank, said that while there is no conclusive evidence of large-scale Russian military transfers to Libya, the increased air traffic is noteworthy. He stated that recently, three cargo planes from Belarus and at least one from Russia have arrived in Libya, indicating that Russia’s activities in Libya are intensifying.

According to some news sources, Moscow is currently in the process of reaching an agreement with the local leader in Tobruk, Khalifa Haftar. In this context, Russia is looking for a new port to deploy its navy in the Mediterranean, and Haftar, with whom it has good relations in the ongoing civil war, offers an attractive alternative for Moscow.

Russian expansion in Africa

Moscow’s presence in Libya is not limited to agreements with Haftar. It also uses Libya as a military logistics center to provide support to coup regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Another region in Sub-Saharan Africa where Moscow is concentrating is Sudan. In this context, Moscow distanced itself from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) and instead cooperated with Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, the leader of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF). This shift may indicate that the Kremlin is reassessing its interests in Sudan, a move that could alter the regional balance of power.

Russia has also developed deeper ties with the military regimes in Mali and Burkina Faso, positioning itself as a security partner during the withdrawal of Western forces. The establishment of Maaten Al-Sarra as a logistics hub could strengthen military operations in these countries.

The balance of power in Libya

Since 2017, Khalifa Haftar has been in close military and diplomatic contact with Russia. Moscow’s establishment of a permanent military presence in eastern Libya is considered a “bold move” by NATO and the United States. Haftar’s growing distance from the West and his closer ties with Russia stand out as a development that could change the geopolitical balance in Libya.

This could lead to the east of Libya coming under Russia’s influence, which could lead to new tensions between the Tripoli-based United Nations-backed government and Moscow. While the west of Libya has an internationally recognized government, Russia’s backing of the forces in the east could trigger a new power struggle in the country, which has long been characterized by a prolonged absence of conflict.

Libya: A new military center

Russia’s withdrawal from Syria and its shift toward Libya are important developments in terms of Mediterranean security. Following the collapse of the Assad regime and its expulsion from the country, Moscow seems to have shifted toward a strategy of reducing its military presence in Syria and protecting its interests in North Africa more strongly.

Moscow’s shift of its military presence to Libya could lead to a major geopolitical shift not only in the Mediterranean but also in Africa. Already, Russia is reorganizing its military presence in the Sahel region under the name of the African Corps and increasing its influence in countries such as Mali, Niger and Chad. Russia’s strengthening of its presence in Libya could pose a new security risk on Europe’s southern borders.

Improved relations with Khalifa Haftar and the possible opening of the port of Tobruk to the Russian navy could turn Libya into a new military hub for Moscow. Russia’s expanding military presence in Libya is a development that should be carefully monitored by NATO, especially Italy. Although Russia aligned itself with NATO member France in the 2019 conflict, its access to a strategic presence on NATO’s southern borders in the event of a possible ceasefire in Ukraine signals a major problem. While the latest moves of the newly inaugurated U.S. President Trump are changing the world agenda very quickly, they prevent NATO countries from taking concrete and strong steps in the region. Moreover, the presence of countries like France in the alliance continues to feed the unresolved problems in Libya.