New Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba wants to create an Asian NATO rather quickly

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Shigeru Ishiba on Japan’s New Security Era: The Future of Japan’s Foreign Policy

Shigeru Ishiba, the next prime minister of Japan, exclusively shared his views recently on the future of Japan’s foreign policy in response to a request from Hudson Institute’s Japan Chair. The following is an unofficial translation of his response.

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Establishing the Asian NATO

The security environment was transformed by the war in Ukraine. The war in Ukraine began with the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. This was the limit of the collective security regime of the UN. President Joe Biden said, “Ukraine is not a member of NATO [the North Atlantic Treaty Organization], so there are no obligations to defend it,” and “Ukraine is not in NATO. So, the US will not use military force.” That was America’s logic.

Under Article 51 of the UN Charter, Ukraine has the right of all nations to “exercise the right of collective self-defense in the event of a request for assistance from an aggressor nation, pending a decision by the UN Security Council. Such a right should not have been denied to Ukraine because it is not a NATO member, but the US did not defend Ukraine under the article.

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Ukraine today is Asia tomorrow. Replacing Russia with China and Ukraine with Taiwan, the absence of a collective self-defense system like NATO in Asia means that wars are likely to break out because there is no obligation for mutual defense. Under these circumstances, the creation of an Asian version of NATO is essential to deter China by its Western allies.

To this end, Japan made a cabinet decision during the Abe administration to reinterpret the Constitution to allow for the exercise of the right of collective self-defense. The Japanese Self-Defense Forces, which had been allowed to use only minimal force in response to a direct attack on Japan, could now fight back if certain conditions were met, even in the event the attack was on a country Japan has a close relationship with. Later, under the Kishida administration, the cabinet approved the “Three Security Documents” and increased the defense budget to 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) to ensure the ability to fight back.

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Enactment of the National Security Legislation

However, these measures are merely stipulated in cabinet decisions or individual laws. In Japan, it is customary for the Diet to enact basic laws on important issues of national policy, clearly stating the direction of these laws before the people and proceeding with individual policies. However, there is no basic law on security issues to date. The geopolitical crisis surrounding our country has risen to the point where war could break out at any moment. To deal with this crisis, the enactment of the “National Security Legislation” is urgently needed. The “Basic Law on National Security” is one of the pillars of my foreign and national security policy, which has been repeatedly discussed within the LDP, and will be followed by the LDP’s long-cherished desire to revise the Constitution.

Currently, in the Indo-Pacific region, the QUAD (the United States, Japan, Australia, and India) has been raised to the level of a summit meeting, and AUKUS (Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) was created in September 2021. Furthermore, the security cooperation relationship between the US, Japan, and South Korea has deepened, and many frameworks, including regular summit meetings, joint training, and information sharing, have been institutionalized, bringing the bilateral alliances closer to a real “trilateral alliance.” The US and Japan have also reviewed the command and control structure of the Self-Defense Forces and US forces in Japan, put forward the joint development and production of defense equipment such as missiles, and coordinated on American extended deterrence.

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Recently, Russia and North Korea have formed a military alliance, and nuclear technology is being transferred from Russia to North Korea. North Korea is strengthening its nuclear and missile capabilities, and if China’s strategic nuclear weapons are added to these dynamics, the US extended deterrence in the region will no longer function. This is to be supplemented by an Asian version of NATO, which must ensure deterrence against the nuclear alliance of China, Russia, and North Korea. The Asian version of NATO must also specifically consider America’s sharing of nuclear weapons or the introduction of nuclear weapons into the region.

Currently, in addition to the US-Japan alliance, Japan has quasi-alliance relationships with Canada, Australia, the Philippines, India, France, and the United Kingdom. Furthermore, the “2+2” meetings are taking place, and there is a horizontal development of alliances in terms of strategic partnerships. Japan and the US are deepening security cooperation with South Korea. If these alliances are upgraded, a hub-and-spoke system, with the Japan-US alliance at its core, will be established, and in the future, it will be possible to develop the alliance into an Asian version of NATO.

 

On the other hand, confidence-building mShigeru Ishiba to be next Japanese prime minister after winning LDP  leadershipeasures (CBMs) to reduce potential “threats” will also be important. Japan was hit by the Noto Peninsula earthquake on New Year’s Day 2024. Soon, the possibility of a Nankai Trough earthquake, an earthquake directly under the Tokyo metropolitan area, and the eruption of Mt. Fuji will increase, and the establishment of a “Ministry of Disaster Management” similar to the FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) in the US is an urgent priority. In Asia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and China are frequently hit by major earthquakes, floods, and tsunamis, and multinational forces are engaged in HADR (Humanitarian and Natural Disaster Response) activities to cope with such events. China has also been committed to HADR, having dispatched a naval hospital ship to RIMPAC 16. In cooperation with the United Nations Disaster Reduction and Response (UNDRR) and other organizations, HADR activities for disaster reduction in the Asia-Pacific region will be further strengthened in cooperation with an Asian version of NATO, and confidence-building measures will be developed.

Strengthening the Japan-US Alliance as Equal to the US-UK Alliance

Japan has overcome security challenges one by one for nearly 80 years since the end of World War II. As a culmination of postwar politics, the Ishiba administration aims to contribute to regional security by strengthening the Japan-US alliance as an “equal nation” on par with the US-UK alliance. By building a framework to comprehensively promote security policy, Japan should secure its independence and peace, and proactively and positively contribute to a stable international environment.

The US-Japan Security Treaty is the backbone of Japan’s postwar political history, a bilateral alliance that must evolve with the times. The Armitage-Nye Report once proposed that the “special relationship” between the US and the UK be the model for the US-Japan alliance, and that the US and Japan become “equal partners.” Now, this is possible, and we can defend the liberal order jointly, shoulder-to-shoulder with the US. The conditions are ripe to revise the Japan-US Security Treaty into a treaty between “ordinary countries.”

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The current Japan-US security treaty is structured so that the US is obligated to “defend” Japan, and Japan is obligated to “provide bases” to the US. The time is ripe to change this “asymmetrical bilateral treaty.” It is possible that the Japan-US Security Treaty and Status of Forces Agreement could be revised to allow the Self-Defense Forces to be stationed in Guam to strengthen the deterrence capabilities of Japan and the US. If this happens, a status agreement for the “SDF in Guam” could be made the same as that for US forces in Japan. Furthermore, expanding the scope of joint management of US bases in Japan would also reduce the burden on US forces in Japan.

It is my mission to raise the Japan-US alliance to the level of the US-UK alliance. To achieve this, Japan must have its own military strategy and become independent in terms of security until it is willing to share its own strategy and tactics on equal terms with the US. As a conservative politician, Shigeru Ishiba will build a “security system that can protect its own nation by itself” and actively contribute to the peace and stability of the Indo-Pacific nations based on the Japan-US alliance.

日本の外交政策の将来

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アジア版NATOの創設

安全保障環境はウクライナ戦争で一変した。ウクライナ戦争は国連常任理事国のロシアによるウクライナに侵攻することで始まった。これは国連という集団的安全保障体制の限界である。バイデン大統領は「ウクライナはNATO(北大西洋条約機構)に加盟していないから防衛義務を負わない」「ウクライナはNATOに入っていない。だからアメリカは軍事力行使はしない」 それがアメリカの理屈であった。

国連憲章51条により、「被攻撃国から救援要請があった場合に国連安保理の決定がなされるまでの間、集団的自衛権を行使することができる」というのは、すべての国の権利である。それはウクライナがNATO加盟国ではないからと否定されるものでないのであるが、米国はそのような行動はとらなかった。

今のウクライナは明日のアジア。ロシアを中国、ウクライナを台湾に置き換えれば、アジアにNATOのような集団的自衛体制が存在しないため、相互防衛の義務がないため戦争が勃発しやすい状態にある。この状況で中国を西側同盟国が抑止するためにはアジア版NATOの創設が不可欠である。

そのためには日本は安倍政権のときに憲法解釈の変更を行い集団的自衛権の行使を認める閣議決定をした。日本への直接的な攻撃に対して最小限の武力行使しか許されなかった自衛隊は、親密な他国が攻撃を受けた場合でも、一定の条件を満たせば反撃可能になったのである。その後、岸田政権下で「安保三文書」を閣議決定し、防衛予算を国内総生産(GDP)比2%へ増加させ反撃能力を確保した。

国家安全保障基本法の制定

しかし、これらの措置は閣議決定や個別の法律で定めているに過ぎない。日本では、国政の重要課題は、国会で基本法を制定し、その方向性を国民の前に明示し個々の政策を進めるのが通例だが、安全保障に関しては、基本法がないまま今日に至っている。我が国を取り巻く地政学的危機はいつ戦争が起こってもおかしくない状況にまで高まっている。その危機への対処のために「国家安全保障基本法」の制定が早急に不可欠となる。「国家安全保障基本法」は自民党内でも検討を重ねたものであり、私の外交・安全保障政策の柱の一つであり、続けて自民党の悲願である憲法改正を行う。

現在、インド太平洋地域において、QUAD(アメリカ、日本、オーストラリア、インド)は首脳会談レベルまで引き上げられ、2021年9月にはAUKUS(オーストラリア、イギリス、アメリカ)が創設された。さらに、また、日米韓の安保協力関係が深化し、首脳会談の定例化をはじめ、共同訓練や情報共有など多くの枠組みを制度化し、実質的な「3か国同盟」に近づいてきている。ここでは、自衛隊と在日米軍の指揮統制の見直しやミサイルなどの防衛装備品の共同開発・生産を打ち出し、米国の拡大抑止の調整もなされている。

最近では、ロシアと北朝鮮は軍事同盟を結び、ロシアから北朝鮮への核技術の移転が進んでいる。北朝鮮は核・ミサイル能力を強化し、これに中国の戦略核が加われば米国の当該地域への拡大抑止は機能しなくなっている。それを補うのはアジア版NATOであり、そこでは中国、ロシア、北朝鮮の核連合に対する抑止力を確保せねばならない。アジア版NATOにおいても米国の核シェアや核の持ち込みも具体的に検討せねばならない。

現在、日本は日米同盟の他、カナダ、オーストラリア、フィリピン、インド、フランス、イギリスと準同盟国関係にある。そこでは「2+2」も開催されるようになり戦略的パートナーシップの面として同盟の水平的展開がみられる。韓国とも日米は安全保障協力を深化させている。これらの同盟関係を格上げすれば、日米同盟を中核としたハブ・スポークスが成立し、さらにはアジア版NATOにまで将来は発展させることが可能となる。

他方、潜在的「脅威」を低減させる信頼醸成措置(CBM)も重要となる。日本は、2024年の元旦は能登半島地震が起こった。近い将来、南海トラフ地震、首都直下地震、富士山噴火の可能性が高まり、米国のFEMA(連邦緊急事態管理庁)に準ずる「防災省」の設置が喫緊の課題となっている。アジアに目を転じてみるとフィリピン、台湾、中国は大きな地震、水害、津波にたびたび見舞われ、その対処として多国籍軍によるHADR(人道及び自然災害)活動がある。中国もHADRに力を入れており海軍の病院船を「リムパック16」に派遣したこともある。国連防災機関(UNDRR)などと協力しながらアジア太平洋地域における防災に対するHADR活動をアジア版NATOと連携しながらさらに強化し、信頼醸成措置を展開させる。

米英同盟なみに日米同盟を強化する

日本は、戦後80年近くにわたり安全保障上の課題をひとつひとつ乗り越えてきた。石破政権では 戦後政治の総決算として米英同盟なみの「対等な国」として日米同盟を強化し、地域の安全保障に貢献することを目指す。安全保障政策を総合的に推進する枠組みを築くことで、日本の独立と平和を確保し、安定した国際環境の実現に主体的かつ積極的に寄与すべきと考える。

日米安全保障条約は、日本の戦後政治史の骨格であり、二国間同盟であり時代とともに進化せねばならない。アーミテージ・ナイ・レポートはかつて米英同盟の「特別な関係」を同盟のモデルとして、日米は「対等なパートナー」となることを提案した。今、それが可能となり、米国と肩をならべて自由主義陣営の共同防衛ができる状況となり、日米安全保障条約を「普通の国」同士の条約に改定する条件は整った。

アメリカは日本「防衛」の義務を負い、日本はアメリカに「基地提供」の義務を負うのが現在の日米安全保障条約の仕組みとなっているが、この「非対称双務条約」を改める時は熟した。日米安全保障条約と地位協定の改定を行い自衛隊をグアムに駐留させ日米の抑止力強化を目指すことも考えられる。そうなれば、「在グアム自衛隊」の地位協定を在日米軍のものと同じものにすることも考えられる。さらに、在日米軍基地の共同管理の幅をひろげていくなどすれば在日米軍の負担軽減ともなろう。

米英同盟なみに日米同盟を引き上げることが私の使命である。そのためには日本は独自の軍事戦略を持ち、米国と対等に戦略と戦術を自らの意思で共有できるまで、安全保障面での独立が必要である。保守政治家である石破茂は、「自分の国家は自分で守れる安全保障体制」の構築を行い、日米同盟を基軸としてインド太平洋諸国の平和と安定に積極的に貢献する。

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