Turkey is weighing the risk of possible Israeli covert action against Hamas officials on its soil following this week’s airstrike on the group’s leaders in Doha, but analysts and officials say an open attack is unlikely, The National reported on Thursday.

The September 9 strike on the Qatari capital of Doha killed six people and has sparked warnings from Turkish politicians that Ankara could be targeted next. Former prime minister Ahmet Davutoğlu wrote on X that “no one can say that Turkey won’t be the next target.”

Turkey does not designate Hamas as a terrorist organization and has hosted senior figures for years. After the October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan described Hamas as a “liberation group” of “mujahideen.”

An adviser to the Turkish parliament’s foreign and national defense committees told The National that lawmakers regularly assess the risks, discussing “threat intelligence, air defense measures, Nato alliance management and diplomatic options.” While a direct Israeli strike on a NATO member would be seen as prohibitively costly, covert operations targeting Hamas members in Turkey “aren’t entirely ruled out,” the adviser said.

Egypt, Qatar and Turkey have been in talks over how to protect Hamas leaders from further Israeli attacks, according to The National. Hamas itself views Turkey as a possible target given Israel’s recent willingness to strike in neighboring Syria and Iran.

The prospect has fueled warnings from smaller Islamist parties in Turkey. Fatih Erbakan, leader of the New Welfare Party, said in a post that “Zionist Israel says Qatar today, Ankara tomorrow! What more do we expect? Remember, Israel only understands power!” His party made gains in local elections last year by appealing to voters dissatisfied with what they saw as the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) insufficient action over Palestine.

Relations between Turkey and Israel, once on the mend, have deteriorated sharply since October 2023. Turkey halted trade and suspended flights in May 2024 but has not cut diplomatic ties. Following the Doha strike, Erdoğan spoke by phone with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim to discuss “joint steps to be taken” against Israel, according to the Turkish presidency.

Still, analysts caution against overestimating the likelihood of an attack on Turkish territory. Mehmet Özkan, a professor of international relations at Turkey’s National Defense University, told The National that such a move was “totally unrealistic given the regional and global circumstances.”

US President Donald Trump, who maintains a working relationship with Erdoğan, also said he was “not thrilled” about Israel’s Doha strike and would likely oppose any operation against Turkey, a close US ally.

Turkey has NATO’s second-largest army, and an attack on its territory could trigger the alliance’s collective defense obligations. “Such an attack will not be merely [a] Turkish-Israeli issue,” Özkan told The National. “It will be something more than that, bringing in the West, US and even wider Islamic world. My understanding is that Israel will not dare to do such a thing towards Turkey.”