Two US aircraft carrier strike groups are in the Middle East, with a third on the way. The US and India have issued fresh advisories, while Israel has reportedly conducted a military sortie near the Iranian border. Over the past few weeks, there have been several tell-tale signs that the US and Israel could resume strikes against Iran – this time with far greater force. With negotiations stalled and both sides exchanging threats, the Gulf could be heading towards another military showdown.

While Donald Trump had earlier pledged not to attack Iran before the November 3 elections, his latest threats – including a reference to the “mother of all bombs” – suggest that a fresh round of strikes is imminent. His envoy to Turkiye even asserted that America could strike Iran “as soon as this weekend”.

The warmongering and escalating rhetoric come as Iran refuses to surrender its enriched uranium and open up the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway that accounts for 20% of the global oil trade.

THIRD US AIRCRAFT CARRIER ON WAY

The US has dispatched a third aircraft carrier strike group, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, to the Middle East. Accompanying it is the USS Makin Island amphibious readiness group, with its two amphibious landing ships. Together, they are carrying more than 7,000 sailors and 2,000 Marines, according to a report in AP.

This means that by early November, there would be an unusually high number of US naval presence in the region, with more than 20,000 sailors and Marines as well as hundreds of aircraft, including F-53s. The USS George HW Bush and the USS George Washington are presently in the region.

This effectively gives Trump a wide range of options to ramp up attacks on Iran, or possibly deploy ground forces if he decides to secure Hormuz. However, a section of experts believe sending more troops to the region could be Trump’s negotiating tactic with Iran.

The US President has also teased unleashing the so-called ‘mother of all bombs’ to target Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites. The GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast, or MOAB, is among the largest non-nuclear bombs ever developed. Weighing around 9,800 kg, the bomb can blow tunnels, caves, and fortified structures to smithereens in seconds.

IRAN RAMPS UP MILITARY EXERCISES

Iran, meanwhile, has been conducting military exercises across the country, including launching 30 ballistic missiles in one go, CNN reported. Voices from Tehran suggest that its commanders are preparing for an inevitable resumption of hostilities.

Earlier this week, in a tit-for-tat move, the IRGC teased a new weapon – the ‘father of all bombs’. “This is something new for the enemy,” IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohabi told local media.

The IRGC has also threatened to use its new long-range missiles in case of a military escalation. Analysts suggested that these missiles could reach US airbases in Britain, or the logistics hub in Germany’s Ramstein – the largest US military installation outside America.

Earlier this month, the US moved all of its long-range bombers stationed in the UK back to their home base.

Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s National Security Council, has asserted that there would be “zero red lines” this time. Rezaei has warned that targets would include oil facilities, undersea cables, data centres and AI facilities across the Gulf.

US ISSUES SECURITY ADVISORY

Another key signal that we feel indicates a possible resumption of the conflict is the fresh round of security warnings issued by US diplomatic missions across the Middle East to American citizens.

Over the past week, alerts have been issued by US embassies in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE of hostilities escalating rapidly and without warning. The advisories urged Americans to prepare for possible flight cancellations and airspace closures.

The Iran-backed Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia have only added to the tensions, opening another front in the conflict.

On October 21, the US Department of State ordered some diplomats and their family members to depart from its missions in Saudi Arabia. Plans are also afoot to withdraw family members from other US missions in the region.

Such wide-ranging advisories were issued in March when Tehran launched attacks on US facilities across the Gulf in retaliation for US-Israel strikes.

INDIA ALERTS NATIONALS, FLIGHTS CANCELLED

During previous rounds of conflict, India has often been among the first nations to issue security advisories, sometimes even before hostilities began.

One such advisory went out earlier this week, with India asking its nationals in Saudi Arabia to take “due precautions” and warning of aerial attacks. The advisory was issued after a Houthi missile strike on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport killed an Indian national and left several injured.

Additionally, all Indian airlines have cancelled their flights to Saudi Arabia till October 31, with some even till November 30. Around 4,000 Indian pilgrims stranded in Mecca and Medina are also being evacuated.

ISRAELI JETS CONDUCT SORTIES NEAR IRAN

Israel, meanwhile, has not kept quiet. According to a report in Axios, dozens of Israeli fighter jets conducted sorties close to the Iranian border earlier this week. It coincided with US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth’s hush-hush meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The report said the Israeli exercise involved dozens of fighter jets and refuelling aircraft. The jets followed a flight path consistent with a potential strike against Iran, passing through Syrian and Iraqi airspace.

Officials said the US was aware of the sorties, which Israel called a training exercise intended for “power projection”, Axios reported.

However, US sources said Israel might have wanted to provoke Iran to fire at their aircraft. It would have then provided a justification for launching strikes against Iran.