BY DANA OMIRGAZY

China is strengthening its position as Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner, overtaking Russia in the country’s foreign trade structure. Photo credit: freepik In January-June, China accounted for 23.2% of Kazakhstan’s foreign trade turnover, compared with 18.4% for Russia. Bilateral trade with China reached $16.65 billion, while trade with Russia stood at $13.22 billion, according to the Bureau of National Statistics. The shift matters not only for trade volumes but also for the structure of bilateral trade. According to an analysis by Tengenomika published on Aug. 27, Kazakhstan imported around $9.14 billion worth of goods from China in the first half of this year, compared with approximately $9.74 billion from Russia. However, the composition differs considerably. China is increasingly supplying machinery, equipment, electrical goods and other investment products, while Russia remains a broader source of fuel, food and industrial inputs. The export structure is also different. Kazakhstan exported around $7.51 billion to China, compared with nearly $3.49 billion to Russia. Exports to China are dominated by ores and concentrates, copper, oil and other raw materials, while exports to Russia are more diversified and include metals, chemicals, machinery and equipment. China’s growing role is particularly significant as Kazakhstan enters a new investment cycle.

The government forecasts that goods imports will rise to $88.4 billion by 2029, while exports are projected at $88.5 billion. Tengenomika highlights that the shift represents more than a change in Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner. “China is increasingly becoming a supplier of the machinery, equipment and components needed for new production and infrastructure, while Russia continues to play a major role in supplying the goods and inputs needed by Kazakhstan’s economy today,” Tengenomika said in its analysis. This emerging division of roles highlights how Kazakhstan’s trade ties with the two countries are evolving, with China playing a growing role in investment-driven demand and Russia retaining a broad position across the domestic supply chain.