Development of diversified economies prone to external geopolitical, economic and market volatility shocks remain one of the strategic targets of utmost importance for regional states of Central Asia. To achieve this goal every country of the region must also increase volume, sphere of cooperation and mutual trade among themselves that contribute greatly to resilience of their national economies. The respective government’s Central Asia–oriented and proactive foreign policy enables the country to play a leading role in promoting regional economic cooperation, including in the water, energy, transport, and trade sectors.

Uzbekistan, in this regard, not only has been conducting comprehensive and structural economic reforms, but also has some strong feature and resources that at this stage greatly contribute to the overall performance of national economy and steady growth of its GDP.

Here I would like to underline the enormous demographic potential. Population numbers in 1991, year we gained Independence was 20.6 ml. populations, today 38.4 mln. population. The near-doubling of Uzbekistan’s population over the last 35 years – surging from 20.6 million in 1991 to 38.4 million today – has fundamentally transformed the country, its economy, its geopolitical standing and its place in the evolving system of international relations and regional security.

What began as a challenge of managing transit routes for as an agrarian economy has evolved into a complex logistical puzzle. This generational demographic expansion has strained infrastructure, build in 80-s and 90-s of 20^th century, in a major way altered consumption patterns, and has put extra pressure on both import and export volumes, types of products to be sold or bought in international markets.

As President Shavkat Mirziyoev of Uzbekistan said at the Baku Summit of the 13th session of the World Urban Forum  on May 18^th 2026,  “ Over the next fifteen years, the country’s population is expected to grow from 38 million to 50 million, while the urbanization rate is projected to increase from 51 to 65 percent. In this regard, the country is implementing a large-scale program for the development of urban infrastructure and housing construction. Over the past 10 years, the volume of annual housing construction has increased tenfold. In 2025, 238,000 housing units were built, and by 2030 this figure is expected to increase by another one and a half times. Around $2 billion is allocated annually from the state budget to affordable housing programs”.

In 1991, imports were largely focused on industrial machinery and selective consumer goods. Today, feeding and supporting 38.4 million people requires a massive, continuous influx of bulk agricultural commodities, livestock feed (such as soybean meal), and essential consumer goods. This explosion in import volume has overwhelmed border checkpoints and rail terminals that were originally designed for a much smaller population.

Furthermore, urban centers – particularly the Tashkent oasis—have expanded rapidly, concentrating demand and creating severe localized logistical bottlenecks. As a result, the country faces a constant battle against transit delays, high domestic storage costs, and cargo shrinkage during long-haul deliveries from deep-sea ports.

Uzbekistan’s demographic boom has naturally increased domestic consumption of the very goods it traditionally exported.

– Fresh produce, fruits, and processed textiles that once easily headed to regional markets are now increasingly diverted to satisfy the massive domestic consumer base.

– Because the domestic market requires a vast amount of incoming transport capacity, outbound export logistics must compete for the same finite allocation of railcars, refrigerated trucks, and container slots. Managing this bidirectional flow has driven up freight costs, making Uzbek exports less price-competitive globally.

As the population grew, so did the structural cost of Uzbekistan’s unique geography. Being one of only two double-landlocked countries in the world means every ton of the increased import volume required to sustain 38.4 million people – and every ton of diversified export goods – must cross at least two sovereign borders.

As US trade representatives puts data, during last 2,5 years, “US-Uzbek bilateral trade has been witnessing major boost. U.S. goods and services trade estimated $1.0 billion in 2024, up 8.1 percent ($76.5 million) from 2023. U.S. goods trade with Uzbekistan totaled an estimated $1.0 billion in 2025. U.S. goods exports to Uzbekistan in 2025 were $473.9 million, up 24.5 percent ($93.2 million) from 2024.

American “goods imports from Uzbekistan totaled $574.4 million in 2025, up 1253.5 percent ($531.9 million) from 2024”. It is stated that the U.S. goods trade balance with Uzbekistan shifted from a goods trade surplus of $338.3 million in 2024 to a goods trade deficit of $100.5 million in 2025.

Furthermore, Uzbekistan’s trade turnover with the United States reached $93.3 million in January 2026, increasing by 69.6% compared to $55.0 million recorded in the same period of 2025. It is said that in the same timeframe, “Uzbekistan’s export figures to the United States hit $32.1 million, representing 34.4% of the overall trade, whereas imports soared to $61.1 million, making up 65.6%, highlighting a trade structure heavily reliant on imports”.

Sentiments among Uzbek exporter and experts are similar. They opt for expansion, diversification and easing regulation in our bilateral trade.

Expanding of trade with the United States stays as an important strategic goal for Uzbekistan’s long-term diversification agenda. The country’s improving export capacity, combined with its moderate exposure under the new U.S. tariff regime, provides a unique opportunity to reposition itself as a competitive, tariff-neutral hub for manufacturing and re-export within the region. As an Uzbek expert M.Sultanova  puts – “achieving this will require sustained institutional coordination, improved logistics and certification frameworks, and proactive engagement in regional and global trade partnerships”.

Let us give focus on of the one characteristics that makes Uzbekistan not only geopolitically or militarily the key central state of Central Asia, but also a major regional consumer market. It is rapid rise Uzbekistan’s national economy and needs of rising of population for last 35 years.

Uzbek GDP, thanks to well thought, steady and comprehensive reforms of all sides of national economy, regulatory system and foreign trade under the leadership of the President Shavkat Mirziyoev grew for the last 7 years – from 2020 to 2025 – more than doubled: from $77,034 bn in 2020 to $147.069 bn at the end of 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund. The GDP growth rate in 2026 is 6.5%. Further more, IMF gives following data: “GDP per Capita in Uzbekistan with a population of 37,724,223 people) is $4,661 in 2026, an increase of $814 from $3,846 in 2025; this represents a change of 21.2% in GDP per capita. Nominal (current) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Uzbekistan is $181.50 billion ($181,502,000,000) as of 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

One of the key institutionalized venues that emerged as a driving tool for development and expanding of US-Central Asia, i.e. means also US-Uzbekistan political and trade-economic cooperation is C5+US dialogue. This venue lead to setting up also a business-dialogue venue B5+Us, where businessmen from all states of our region and US have opportunity directly engage in discussing priority projects of bilateral and multilateral interests.

Washington-devised initiative to promote business ties between the five countries of Central Asia and the United States. The forum’s significance is highlighted by the fact that event was attended in person by President Donald Trump’s Special Representative for South and Central Asia – Sergio Gor, native of Uzbek capital Tashkent.

As organizers of the event summarize, “the rationale of the B5+1 Forum is to bring American and Central Asian business leaders and government officials together to foster trade and investment. But as the proceedings at the Sheraton unfolded, it became clear that a more comprehensive, longer-term discussion addressing broader and emerging challenges was largely absent”.

Of course, of other ley area was and are stay the development logistic husband transportation routes.

Overall, to summarize, major milestones have been taken in moving forward to develop bilateral relations in all areas of mutual interest. Much has to be done. This requires continued and tireless efforts to move further in order to achieve tangible results in comings years.

As a person who has extensive personal experience as of the one the business leaders, I am looking forward to make personal contribution to these efforts.

Mr. A. Kurbanov had served as Chairman of the Management Board of JSC “Uztrade”, a state-owned major foreign-trade company from 2021 to 2026, with 17 years of work of experience in the field of international trade and logistics with Central Asian countries, United States, Russia, China and the European Union.