Turkish officials have issued cautious statements when speaking about Israel‘s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, largely due to disagreements with the Lebanese movement dating back to its role in supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after the start of the Syrian civil war, analysts have said.

At the weekend, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan joined a chorus of Arab leaders who issued statements criticising Israel’s latest escalatory attacks on Lebanon.

“Lebanon and the Lebanese people are the latest target of a policy of genocide, occupation, and invasion carried out by Israel since 7 October,” Erdogan said in a post on X, which failed to mention Nasrallah’s killing.

Nasrallah, who led Hezbollah for 32 years, was killed on Friday after Israel probably used 10 US-made BLU-109s bunker-buster bombs on Beirut’s southern suburb of Dahiyeh.

Speaking to reporters on Saturday, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan acknowledged Nasrallah’s killing, but instead of condemning the attack, suggested it hit at the heart of Iran’s “Axis of resistance”.

“Nasrallah’s death was a great loss for both Hezbollah and Iran.”

Fidan also revealed that he had met Nasrallah in Beirut “under difficult circumstances”, some 10 days after the 7 October attack by Hamas on Israel.

For decades, Iran has relied on Hezbollah and other proxies dubbed the axis of resistance as its first line of defence, realising it lacked the conventional firepower to defend itself from adversaries including Israel and the US.

These forces have remained essential to Iran’s ability to project power beyond its borders.

For observers in Ankara, Turkey’s rather cautious approach over the killing is totally understandable.

How will Iran respond to the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah?

“Silence is also a statement,” a person familiar with Turkish thinking told Middle East Eye.

“We haven’t expressed a statement of joy or sadness. One is a message to Iran, another to Israel.”

The only statement that differed from the government’s general line was by Numan Kurtulmus, the speaker of the Turkish Parliament, and a member of the ruling party.

“The assassination of Nasrallah by Israel is a grave consequence of its years-long policy of occupation, destruction and annexation, not only against the Palestinian people, but against all the peoples of the region,” Kurtulmus said, calling him a martyr.

Omer Ozkizilcik, an analyst affiliated with the Atlantic Council think tank, said that even though Turkey is worried about Israel’s war plans for Lebanon and the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in Gaza, Ankara doesn’t want to be supportive of Iran and its proxies.

“Ankara still remembers the vast amount of crimes and atrocities committed by Hezbollah and Hasan Nasrallah in Syria that pushed millions of refugees into Turkey,” Ozkizilcik said.

“Turkey walks a tight line between not showing solidarity for Hezbollah and Iran on one side and demanding an end to Israeli escalation on the other.”

Ankara formulating a new Middle East policy

Turkey’s ruling AK party has been a fervent supporter of the anti-Assad Syrian opposition, and severed ties with the government in 2011 as it backed the protest movement seeking to topple Assad.

As Assad launched a severe crackdown on the opposition, triggering the civil war, Turkey became a lifeline for the Syrian opposition, providing a base for military and political figures.

Many components of the Syrian opposition are still based in Turkey, and Syrian opposition forces, as well as the Turkish military in northern Iraq, frequently found themselves fighting against pro-Syrian government forces

In February 2020, Turkey responded to an attack by Russian and Syrian forces in Idlib, and launched operation “Spring Shield” which saw several fighters associated with Hezbollah fighters. In the same month, a single Turkish drone attack killed nine Hezbollah members and wounded more than 30 others.

Mustafa Caner, an analyst on Iran and the region, associated with the Seta think tank, said Ankara was currently formulating a new Middle East policy aimed at opening a new chapter with both Syria and Lebanon, and therefore taking the middle ground on Hezbollah and Israel.

“First, Ankara must maintain its support for the Syrian opposition and also manage the emotional reservations of the opposition,” Caner told MEE.

“Second, it should avoid being drawn into Iran’s post-7 October rhetoric on Palestinian politics. While Turkey prioritises diplomacy and international law, Iran continues to fuel militant activism through armed groups that enable its regional expansion.”

However, with Turkey deeply concerned by Israel’s actions in recent weeks, starting with the assassination of Hamas leader Ismael Haniyeh and the other bombings targeting Hezbollah’s leadership, the person familiar with Ankara’s thinking said: “Israel, on its path to re-establish its deterrence, has eventually shaped itself as an unrestrained and rogue force. It isn’t sustainable for them to continue their assassination campaigns for long.”