Government and ruling coalition officials are mulling reducing the maximum number of Self-Defense Forces members in line with a revision this year of three national security documents.

The move is being made due to the expected decrease in the overall population as well as the chronic manpower shortage the SDF has faced for years amid recruiting shortfalls.

But lawmakers from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party representing districts hosting SDF bases are expected to put up stout resistance.

There is a current maximum SDF manpower goal of about 247,000 members, but in fiscal 2024 there were only about 220,000 members, or 89.1 percent of the capacity.

That is the first time since fiscal 1999 the figure has dropped below 90 percent.

To deal with the shortage, the government is seeking to increase the pay of SDF members as well as to further increase the use of drones and artificial intelligence to automate equipment and reduce the need for manpower.

Another idea being considered is to have retired SDF members or those in clerical positions handle maintenance, patrol and training activities to allow regular SDF members to concentrate on their primary duties.

Another proposal is to further utilize reserve SDF members who are now called to active duty during natural disasters or will be called up when a military conflict erupts.

Defense Ministry officials have taken the actual SDF figures for fiscal 2024 and the current decrease in the general population to make estimates of likely future manpower capacities.

That led to a figure of about 180,000 for fiscal 2035 and about 130,000 for fiscal 2045.

With ministry officials saying the current manpower levels are unrealistic for the mid- to long-term, even LDP lawmakers are saying that a reduction in manpower capacity is unavoidable.

One factor in determining manpower levels is the integration of intermediate-level command headquarters for the three branches.

In June 2025, Minoru Kihara, the current chief Cabinet secretary who was then chair of the LDP’s Research Commission on Security, compiled a proposal for a drastic review of the functions and areas covered by the regional district headquarters of the three SDF branches.

It was also noted that the creation in March 2025 of the Joint Operations Command should lead to a more efficient organizational structure.

On the other hand, merging and integrating SDF bases now located in rural areas losing population would have a major effect on the local economy and community.

The relevant local governments would not likely agree to any move that would have such negative effects.

A former defense minister said, “Such a move could never be realized in the past because of the fierce opposition raised by lawmakers from districts where bases are located.”

The Ground SDF will also not likely go along with the elimination of intermediate-level command headquarters.

“There is the possibility that a smooth flow of orders to lower levels will not be possible during a military conflict,” said a former head of the Ground Staff Office.

The reduction in the number of leadership posts will also not likely go over well with SDF members.

Manpower shortages in the armed forces are an issue facing many nations.

Germany is considering reviving conscription because it did not enlist enough volunteers for its new military structure.

But a high-ranking Defense Ministry official said instituting a military draft in Japan was unthinkable and other ways to secure manpower would have to be considered.

A former defense minister said the manpower issue would likely be one of the most difficult in obtaining a consensus when revising the three national security documents, which spell out Japan’s diplomatic and security policies.